Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 9.014770 10.363334 11.816631 13.495775 15.378792 17.421633 19.801835
2025-11-30 7.093959 8.929793 11.063085 13.710936 16.893864 20.580623 25.156775
2025-12-07 6.193232 8.262594 10.784946 14.058621 18.164868 23.112502 29.488748
2025-12-14 5.275891 7.432136 10.179569 13.894239 18.736496 24.780475 32.832872
2025-12-21 4.406870 6.526898 9.339968 13.286599 18.611252 25.467933 34.872983
2025-12-28 4.037135 6.241022 9.267826 13.648343 19.730025 27.765690 39.053714
2026-01-04 3.691205 5.941148 9.132414 13.885987 20.661627 29.826864 42.982654
2026-01-11 3.298220 5.525261 8.785995 13.781760 21.086617 31.193412 46.003283
2026-01-18 2.952246 5.140538 8.443795 13.642288 21.429056 32.433382 48.871928
2026-01-25 2.687333 4.853052 8.217173 13.645309 21.959231 33.939393 52.153067
2026-02-01 2.479279 4.634734 8.074471 13.755784 22.639472 35.672771 55.810217
2026-02-08 2.253938 4.363441 7.822531 13.670770 23.005377 36.945360 58.828262
2026-02-15 2.035677 4.086409 7.544627 13.532811 23.292650 38.131454 61.800273
2026-02-22 1.882943 3.910209 7.419097 13.630665 23.950684 39.900212 65.712526
2026-03-01 1.795136 3.842945 7.470721 14.019647 25.085638 42.435340 70.871629
2026-03-08 1.625580 3.603236 7.200712 13.840367 25.275100 43.493429 73.778235
2026-03-15 1.413522 3.256973 6.710010 13.240055 24.721976 43.337552 74.758886
2026-03-22 1.353469 3.209276 6.761192 13.598763 25.804212 45.844183 80.043869
2026-03-29 1.282259 3.130888 6.747574 13.836361 26.684126 48.047587 84.909196
2026-04-05 1.176041 2.966706 6.556109 13.732208 26.956469 49.251581 88.183017
2026-04-12 1.075809 2.804350 6.354463 13.593262 27.154491 50.330600 91.277607
2026-04-19 0.999425 2.686949 6.232618 13.596241 27.603305 51.843367 95.134108
2026-04-26 0.939832 2.601691 6.169117 13.706382 28.249047 53.710732 99.639028